2024 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions (With Data)

 

1. The Cowboys Have The Highest Advance Rate

Here is the revised text for better clarity:

The Cowboys boast the highest advance rate, which is the percentage of best ball teams that finish 1st or 2nd in the regular season (Weeks 1-14). It is considered a decent measure of the best picks at ADP. CeeDee Lamb is my top pick (1.01) after significantly outperforming others in targets and finishing as the WR1 in man coverage composite score. He is considered the safest player in fantasy as he enters his prime in a very pass-heavy offense. There is a significant drop-off in ADP from him to the Cowboys' next player, which is surprising compared to other teams projected for top-10 points this year (see below). This suggests that there is a high likelihood of finding fantasy value behind Lamb.

Jake Ferguson isn't viewed as what you guys call "elite TE" (the most generous title on the planet), but I think he can be. He was 2nd in missed tackles forced, 6th in yards after catch per reception, 7th in targets, 8th in yards, and 9th in receptions last year, but Ferg Daddy scored -3.8 TDs over expected based on bad luck. We can call that "bad luck" because he immediately scored 3 TDs in the NFL Playoffs loss to the Packers. We didn't get fantasy points for those, dangit.

Dak Prescott projects similarly to CJ Stroud individually, yet his ADP is multiple rounds below because there are fewer stacking options before him. That's a spot to exploit with coach Mike McCarthy showcasing his modern approach. The Cowboys are quietly analytics based nowadays: 2nd in 4th-down aggressiveness, 3rd in neutral pass rate, and 3rd in plays per game. There aren't many regression concerns for Prescott either. He finished 51st overall in fantasy points over replacement per game last year because of elite volume and high-end play.

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The supporting players are also very reliable. Brandin Cooks ranked as the 35th best wide receiver in man coverage last year and outperformed his expected fantasy points by 21%, resulting in an overall 85th finish in fantasy points, well above replacement level per game. Currently, he is being drafted much lower than that, despite having the potential to be a top fantasy wide receiver if Lamb is unavailable. The greatest opportunity for value seems to be in the running back position, as the Cowboys' primary running back is being selected after nearly 30 other teams' top running backs. Ezekiel Elliott could be a valuable pick at the 38th running back spot, considering his expertise in goal-line situations and pass protection. On the other hand, Rico Dowdle has a high ceiling if he outperforms Zeke and his relatively low-cost contract. Dowdle is being overlooked, as he is currently the 43rd running back selected. It's important to note that the Cowboys heavily used their running backs last year, ranking 7th in the league in running back usage. In the past, we have consistently drafted highly ranked running backs on Dak's team, but this year might be different.